Slight Improvement in Farmer Outlook

Near Oshkosh

Farmers who took part in the monthly Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey were a bit more optimistic in August, but there is growing concern about inflation. The reading last month was up four points over July to 138.

Economists at the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture say producers had a more positive view of their farm’s financial situation than earlier this summer. The survey indicates farmers expect profitability to be better this year, compared to 2020.

“Although corn, soybean, and wheat prices have declined in recent weeks, farmers have more confidence in their 2021 revenue expectations,” said Jim Mintert, director of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Mintert says producers are becoming increasingly concerned about farm input price inflation. On the August survey, 39% of respondents said they expect input prices to rise by 8% or more in the next 12-months, up from 30% who felt that way in both June and July.

“One in five producers (21%) expect farm input price inflation to exceed 12% in the next 12-months. Just 13% of producers surveyed said they expect input price pressure in the upcoming year to fall in a range of 0 to 2%,” said Mintert.

The Ag Economy Barometer is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey.

Mintert provides analysis of the monthly report in the video below.