>> HELLO AND WELCOME TO INSIDE INDIANA BUSINESS. I'M GERRY DICK. HOOSIERS MADE THEIR VOTES COUNT
IN THE 2020 ELECTION, A YEAR IN WHICH THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC CHANGED BOTH HOW AND WHEN HOOSIERS VOTED IN A BIG WAY.
THE INDIANA SECRETARY OF STATE'S OFFICE ESTIMATES AT LEAST 1.7 MILLION HOOSIERS SUBMITTED BALLOTS BY THE END OF THE EARLY
VOTING PERIOD. WHILE THE OUTCOME OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NATIONALLY IS STILL IN LIMBO, PRESIDENT
TRUMP EASILY WON INDIANA AT ITS 11 ELECTORAL VOTES. GOVERNOR ERIC HOLCOMB EASILY WON REELECTION, MARKING THE FIFTH
STRAIGHT GUBERNATORIAL WIN FOR REPUBLICANS. HOW WILL THE OUTCOMES OF THOSE AND OTHER KEY RACES INDIANA
IMPACT THE WAY HOOSIERS DO BUSINESS? FOR PERSPECTIVE WE TURN TO BALL STATE UNIVERSITY DIRECTOR OF THE
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH MIKE HICKS AND UNIVERSITY OF INDIANAPOLIS ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF FINANCE
MATT WILL. GENTLEMEN, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. >> THANK YOU.
>> WANT TO GET YOUR BIG TAKE-AWAYS. MATT, IS THERE A BIG TAKE THEN AWAY FROM ELECTION NIGHT?
>> THE BIG TAKE AWAY I GOT IS DIVIDED GOVERNMENT. THE MARKET IS MORE INTERESTED IN STABILITY THAN ANYTHING. THE STOCK MARKET
LIKES THE FACT THAT THINGS DON'T CHANGE A LOT, AND THE FACT THAT IT LOOKS LIKE PROBABLY BIDEN IS GOING TO WIN AND THE REPUBLICANS
ARE GOING TO HOLD THE SENATE, FROM AN ECONOMIC STANDPOINT, THIS IS PROBABLY A GOOD THING FOR THE ECONOMY. YOU'RE NOT
GOING TO SEE DRAMATIC CHANGES, NOT GOING TO SEE A LEFT-LEANING AGENDA, THERE IS GOING TO BE COMPROMISE. GRIDLOCK. THE STOCK
MARKET LIKES GRIDLOCK, WHEN THINGS DON'T CHANGE. I ANTICIPATE THE RESULT OF THE ELECTION IS GOING TO BE SOME
ECONOMIC STABILITY. >> MIKE, HOW ABOUT YOU? >> YEAH, I WOULD AGREE. THE ELECTORAL RESULTS POINT TOWARDS
A STRONG CENTRIST APPROACH, BOTH DEMOCRATS AND THE REPUBLICANS WHO WON SEEM TO BE FROM THE MIDDLE OF THEIR PARTY, AT LEAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRIST POSITION. IT IS NOT A SWEEPING ELECTION FOR CHANGE AND SUBSTANCE, MAYBE IN STYLE.
>> AS WE'RE TAPING THIS, THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE STILL NOT DECIDED, PERHAPS LEANING TOWARD A PRESIDENT ELECT BIDEN. MIKE,
FROM YOUR VIEW, IF YOU'RE DOING BUSINESS IN INDIANA, WHAT'S YOUR ANTICIPATION IN TERMS OF THE IMPACT THAT HE HAS TALKED ABOUT,
RAISING TAXES AS A PROSPECT OF SYMPTOM STIMULUS? >> I THINK THE DIVIDED
GOVERNMENT MEANS WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE MAJOR TAX REFORM. WE'LL PROBABLY HAVE COVID RELIEF EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER. THAT
WILL MAKE THINGS BETTER FOR THE HOOSIER ECONOMY. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I THINK IS IMPORTANT IS THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION'S
APT TO END THE TRADE WAR, OR AT LEAST SERIOUSLY RATCHET IT DOWN, IMPORTANT FOR HOOSIER MANUFACTURERS, GOVERNOR HOLCOMB
IS GOING TO WORK WITH THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO TRY TO PROMOTE INDIANA INTERESTS. I DON'T THINK THIS IS AN OUTCOME THAT OUGHT TO
FRIGHTEN ANYBODY WHO MAY BE WARY OF DEMOCRATS. WE'RE IN A PERIOD OF STABLE FISCAL ENVIRONMENT. IF WE CAN GET PAST COVID WE'LL SEE
RECOVERY. WE'RE A LONG WAYS AWAY FROM GETTING THROUGH COVID. >> I'M PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS OPTIMISTIC AS MIKE ON THIS ONE.
THE CONCERN I HAVE IS A SECOND LOCKDOWN, BECAUSE INDIANA BOUNCED BACK PRETTY WELL, WE'RE UP TO OVER 500,000 MANUFACTURING
JOBS, AS A RESULT OF THE RECOVERY COMING BACK FROM THE LOCKDOWNS IF WE HAVE ANOTHER LOCKDOWN YOU'RE GOING TO SEE
MUNICIPAL BUDGET CRISES, MORE SMALL BUSINESSES CLOSING. 60% OF THE BUSINESSES THAT WERE CLOSED DURING THE LOCKDOWN ARE
PERMANENT CLOSURES. AND WHEN A PRESIDENT ELECT BIDEN ANNOUNCED THAT POSSIBLY HE'S GOING TO DO ANOTHER LOCKDOWN, I THINK THAT
IS A SERIOUS CONCERN. AND I HOPE HE DOESN'T GO THAT ROUTE. >> MATT, I'LL START WITH YOU, OBVIOUSLY INDIANA VERY
MANUFACTURING INTENSIVE STATE, AG IS A BIG PART OF THE ECONOMY. AS YOU LOOK AT THOSE SECTORS, IN A POTENTIALLY BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION, YOUR OUTLOOK? >> YOU KNOW, INDIANA IS GOING TO BENEFIT IN SOME AREAS AND BE HURT IN OTHERS. THE BIG BENEFIT
IS GOING TO BE MANUFACTURING LOGISTICS, AS PEOPLE ARE AT HOME AND ORDERING ONLINE, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TRANSPORT THOSE
GOODS, THEY'RE GOING TO GO THROUGH PLAINFIELD AND GREENWOOD, DOESN'T MATTER WHETHER YOU'RE ORDERING
SOMETHING IN NEW YORK OR SAN FRANCISCO, EVERYTHING GOES THROUGH INDIANA AT SOME POINT. ON THAT SIDE IT'S GOING TO BE
GOOD. MAYBE A RESTRUCTURING OF THE ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY. WE HAD A ROBUST ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY HERE IN THE STATE THAT
WE EMPLOYED 82,000 PEOPLE IN TRAVEL AND TOURISM. THAT NUMBER WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED AS A RESULT OF THIS, TAX
REVENUES, VISITORS, THE WAGES THOSE FOLKS EARN. WE'LL SEE A TRANSITION AWAY FROM THAT. IT IS VERY VISIBLE, GERRY, ONLY 2.5%
OF OUR GROSS STATE PRODUCT IS IN TOURISM. I'M OPTIMISTIC THAT THE DISTRIBUTION, LOGISTICS AND MANUFACTURING ARE GOING TO
REALLY CARRY THE DAY. >> MIKE, THE LAST WORD, CURIOUS YOUR TAKE, IRRESPECTIVE OF WHO IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE, HOW ABOUT
THE IMPACT ON STATE FINANCES, CITY, AND COUNTY FINANCES, COMING OUT OF THIS PANDEMIC? I KNOW THE POTENTIAL IS VERY
CONCERNING, WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON HOW 2021 AND BEYOND MIGHT LOOK FOR MUNICIPALITIES? >> SO, LOOK, WE HAVE TO REALLY
ADMIT DESPITE A LOT OF THE RHETORIC ABOUT A V-SHAPED RECOVERY, ABOUT ONE IN SIX AMERICANS, ABOUT ONE IN SIX
HOOSIERS WHO WERE WORKING IN JANUARY ARE NOT WORKING TODAY. THEY'RE EITHER OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE BECAUSE OF CHILDCARE, OR
THEY'VE LOST THEIR JOBS. AND THAT'S GOING TO POSE A HUGE ECONOMIC RISK ON ANY RECOVERY THAT A COVID RELIEF BILL WILL
HELP MITIGATE. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A LOSS OF TAX REVENUES FOR STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT BETWEEN 5 AND 8% THIS YEAR AND
NEXT YEAR, IT'S GOING TO LAG INTO 2022 AND 2023. AND SO STATES HAVE TO BALANCE THEIR BUDGETS AS TO LOCAL GOVERNMENT.
THIS WILL CALL FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO COME IN AND PREVENT SCHOOL TEACHER LAYOFFS, LOCAL GOVERNMENT LAYOFFS AND
THAT SORT OF THING. RIGHT, I DON'T BELIEVE WE OUGHT TO BE -- ABOUT THE SHORT-TERM ECONOMY, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT
IS CRITICAL TO GET US TO THE NEXT STEP IS A COVID RELIEF BILL, AND AN END TO THE DISEASE. THAT IS REALLY GOING TO BE THE
DAMPENING ACTIVITY ON EVERYTHING THAT WE DO, INCLUDING ANY SHORT OF ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT. >> MIKE HICKS, MATT WILL,
U-INDY, GREAT PERSPECTIVE, THANK