WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:05.839 >> HELLO, AND WELCOME TO "INSIDE INDIANA BUSINESS." I'M GERRY DICK. AND HAPPY NEW YEAR! 2 00:00:05.839 --> 00:00:12.078 HAPPY 2020. LAST YEAR, IN 2019, WE SAW A LOT. LOTS OF JOBS ANNOUNCEMENTS, 3 00:00:12.078 --> 00:00:19.552 INCLUDING SUBSTANTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT IN OUR STATE. THERE WERE ALSO SOME JOB CUTS, 4 00:00:19.552 --> 00:00:22.922 NOTABLY CUMMINS ANNOUNCING PLANS TO SLASH 2,000 JOBS COMPANY-WIDE LATE IN THE YEAR. WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THE 5 00:00:22.922 --> 00:00:29.162 ECONOMY IN 2020? CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH AT BALL STATE THE DIRECTOR OF THAT INSTITUTE, 6 00:00:29.162 --> 00:00:34.200 MIKE HICKS IS HERE NOW WITH HIS FORECAST FOR THE YEAR AHEAD. MIKE, AS ALWAYS, WELCOME BACK AND HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU. 7 00:00:34.200 --> 00:00:41.107 >> HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU. >> BEFORE WE LOOK AHEAD, LET'S LOOK BACK, BECAUSE 2019 WAS AN EVENTFUL YEAR, LOTS OF JOBS 8 00:00:41.107 --> 00:00:45.645 ANNOUNCEMENTS, A BUDGET SURPLUS, LOTS OF POSITIVES. ALSO, A LOT OF MANUFACTURING JOB LOSSES TOO. 9 00:00:45.645 --> 00:00:53.686 >> RIGHT, WELL, IF WE LOOK BACK EVEN OVER A DECADE, WE'RE NOW IN 10 FULL YEARS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY, NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE, 10 00:00:53.686 --> 00:01:01.294 SO INDIANA HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL. WE'VE ADDED JOBS EACH YEAR, WE'VE ADDED MANUFACTURING JOBS SINCE 2010, SO MAYBE THIS YEAR 11 00:01:01.294 --> 00:01:06.866 IS AN ANO, MA'AM ANOMALY,F GROWTH, MAYBE THERE'S JUST A QUICK PAUSE IN MANUFACTURING. 12 00:01:06.866 --> 00:01:14.707 SO AS WE LOOK AT THIS YEAR, JOB GROWTH, NEGATIVE MAYBE, 10,000 MANUFACTURING JOBS BUT IT DOESN'T SEEM TO SPILL OVER INTO 13 00:01:14.707 --> 00:01:20.046 ANYTHING ELSE, SO WE'VE HAD A REASONABLY GOOD YEAR DESPITE THE FACT OF JOB LOSSES. LOOKING INTO NEXT YEAR, PROBABLY 14 00:01:20.046 --> 00:01:26.453 A LITTLE BIT SLOWER GROWTH THAN 2019, BUT NO HUGE WARNING SIGNS ANYWHERE IN OUR ECONOMY. >> GOOD. 15 00:01:26.453 --> 00:01:31.958 ONE THING THAT STOOD OUT TO ME BECAUSE IT'S BEEN SUCH A BIG ISSUE IN OUR STATE FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, AND THAT'S INCOME 16 00:01:31.958 --> 00:01:37.163 GROWTH. THAT'S A POSITIVE FOR 2019. >> JUST THE LAST QUARTER GROWTH, INDIANA LED THE MIDWEST IN 17 00:01:37.163 --> 00:01:41.067 INCOME GROWTH. IT WAS A HUGE PIECE OF GOOD NEWS. NATIONALLY WE KNOW OVER THE PAST 18 00:01:41.067 --> 00:01:45.872 18 MONTHS OR SO, WE'VE BEEN SEEING WAGE GROWTH THAT HAS BEEN LARGELY ABSENT FROM THIS RECOVERY. 19 00:01:45.872 --> 00:01:50.877 WE'VE SEEN IT COMING EVERYWHERE, PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER WAGE SECTOR. SO WE'RE BEGINNING TO SEE WAGE 20 00:01:50.877 --> 00:01:57.817 PRESSURE IN THOSE VERY TIGHT LABOR MARKET, SO THAT'S GREAT NEWS. THAT KEEPS EMPLOYMENT SUSTAINED 21 00:01:57.817 --> 00:02:02.755 THROUGHOUT THE YEAR IN THOSE AREAS WHERE HOUSEHOLDS ARE CONSUMING. PRETTY GOOD CHRISTMAS SEASON, I 22 00:02:02.755 --> 00:02:09.162 THINK, HERE IN INDIANA AND EVERYWHERE ELSE, SO THAT'S FANTASTIC NEWS AND SORT OF GIVES A SENSE THAT MAYBE THE ECONOMY 23 00:02:09.162 --> 00:02:14.667 ISN'T STALLING AS WE THOUGHT MAYBE SIX MONTHS AGO. >> LET'S LOOK AHEAD BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME ON THE NATIONAL 24 00:02:14.667 --> 00:02:19.906 SCENE PREDICTING MAYBE AN ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN, SOME EVEN TALKING RECESSION. WHAT DO YOU SEE IN THE TEA 25 00:02:19.906 --> 00:02:24.277 LEAVES, ESPECIALLY AS IT RELATES TO INDIANA. >> IT'S HARD TO READ THE TEA LEAVES. 26 00:02:24.277 --> 00:02:29.148 THE MODEL -- I JUST CANNOT FORCE IT INTO RECESSION. THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. 27 00:02:29.148 --> 00:02:34.454 EVEN WITH THE MANUFACTURING JOB LOSSES AS I SAID, THEY'RE NOT SPILLING OVER INTO THE REST OF THE ECONOMY AS WE WOULD HAVE 28 00:02:34.454 --> 00:02:40.193 EXPECTED 10 YEARS OR 30 YEARS AGO. SO PART OF THAT COULD JUST BE A NATURAL PROGRESSION, 29 00:02:40.193 --> 00:02:45.832 MANUFACTURING SORT OF ADJUSTING TO A NEW ENVIRONMENT AFTER A DECADE OF GROWTH. SO I THINK WE'LL PROBABLY SEE 30 00:02:45.832 --> 00:02:51.237 GROWTH JUST UNDER 2%. I THINK WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SEE WAGE GROWTH AS THOSE LABOR MARKETS REMAIN VERY TIGHT. 31 00:02:51.237 --> 00:02:57.610 I THINK WE'LL SEAL SOME POCKETS OF DIFFICULT TIMES. WE'VE HAD A BAD YEAR IN THE RV INDUSTRY, FOR EXAMPLE. 32 00:02:57.610 --> 00:03:01.481 IT PROBABLY WILL REBOUND A BIT THIS YEAR. SO I DON'T SEE ANY REAL PROBLEMS. 33 00:03:01.481 --> 00:03:06.753 I THINK WE'LL END THE YEAR WITH A BUDGET SURPLUS. IF THE TRADE WAR COULD BE ENDED, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY 34 00:03:06.753 --> 00:03:12.325 GOOD YEAR. WHEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ARE DOWN TO UNDER 3 1/2%, IT'S HARD TO SEE FAST GROWTH. 35 00:03:12.325 --> 00:03:17.363 WHERE ARE THE WORKERS GOING TO COME FROM TO FUEL A HUGE EXPANSION. >> AS YOU LOOK AT STORY LINES IN 36 00:03:17.363 --> 00:03:23.570 THE YEAR AHEAD, IN 2020, AS YOU AND I WERE TALKING OFF CAMERA, TALENT AND KEEPING TALENT, ATTRACTING TALENT, GOING TO 37 00:03:23.570 --> 00:03:29.576 CONTINUE TO BE A BIG ISSUE RIGHT HERE IN INDIANAPOLIS, BUT REALLY IN EVERY CORNER OF THE STATE. >> THAT'S OUR NUMBER ONE ISSUE 38 00:03:29.576 --> 00:03:37.584 HERE IN INDIANA. THE JOBS THAT WERE CREATED OVER THIS LONG RECOVERY HAVE NOT BEEN AS ROBUST, THERE HAVE BEEN MORE 39 00:03:37.584 --> 00:03:41.454 CONCENTRATION IN LOW WAGE SECTORS. SOME OF THAT MAY BE CHANGING WITH THE WAGE GROWTH, BUT WE 40 00:03:41.454 --> 00:03:48.127 CANNOT FUEL A BIG MODERN COMEEL WITHOUT MORE OF THOSE COLLEGE EDUCATED FOLKS STAYING, SO WHAT'S HAPPENING IN CENTRAL 41 00:03:48.127 --> 00:03:53.466 INDIANA, WHICH IS ABSORBING MORE THAN 100% OF THE GROWTH OF THE STATE, REALLY HAS TO EXTEND TO THE REST OF THE STATE. 42 00:03:53.466 --> 00:03:58.471 THE GOVERNOR HAS MENTIONED THAT IN HIS CONCERN OVER GROWTH HITTING EVERY CORNER OF THE STATE. 43 00:03:58.471 --> 00:04:05.845 BUT I THINK THAT'S REALLY THE TALENT ATTRACTION, FOCUSING ON TALENT LIKE THE GREENSBURG STORY ARE ALL PART OF WHERE WE'RE NOW 44 00:04:05.845 --> 00:04:11.818 HEADED IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. >> FINAL QUESTION TOO AS WE GET INTO RURAL INDIANA TOO, SOME CHALLENGING AREAS WHEN IT COMES 45 00:04:11.818 --> 00:04:18.324 TO JOB CREATION AND TALENT, ALL THOSE ISSUES WE TALK ABOUT, MAYBE A BIT EASIER IT'S HAPPENING IN METRO AREAS BUT THE 46 00:04:18.324 --> 00:04:27.667 RURAL AREAS FACING CHALLENGES. >> RIGHT, ALL THE JOB GROWTH IN INDIANA IS HAPPENING IN THESE TWO OR THREE METRO AREAS. 47 00:04:27.667 --> 00:04:34.240 THE ADVANTAGE INDIANA HAS OVER THE REST OF THE NATION IS THAT WE'RE A COMPACT STATE. YOU'RE NOT MORE THAN 40 MINUTES 48 00:04:34.240 --> 00:04:40.613 FROM A CITY ANYWHERE. SO THAT'S A HAPPY STORY FOR MUCH OF INDIANA. I THINK IT GIVES US A BETTER 49 00:04:40.613 --> 00:04:45.151 RURAL FUTURE THAN, SAY, IOWA OR SOUTH DAKOTA. >> ALL RIGHT. FAIRLY POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR 50 00:04:45.151 --> 00:04:46.152 2020.