WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.003 >>GERRY: HELLO AND WELCOME TO INSIDE INDIANA BUSINESS. I'M GERRY DICK. THE HOUSING INVENTORY AROUND 2 00:00:04.003 --> 00:00:11.778 INDIANA HAS BEEN TIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE MOST AFFORDABLE PRICE POINTS AND BUYERS HAVE BEEN FORCED TO PAY 3 00:00:11.778 --> 00:00:17.984 ABOVE LIST, IN SOME CASES THE RESULT HAS BEEN A BIDDING WAR. BUYERS ARE WONDERING "WHY ARE WE HAVING TO PAY ABOVE LIST PRICE, 4 00:00:17.984 --> 00:00:25.525 AND HOW LONG WILL IT CONTINUE?" FOR SOME INSIGHT, I'M PLEASED TO WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES 5 00:00:25.525 --> 00:00:33.466 INDIANA REALTY BROKER GREG COOPER. WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. >> GREAT TO BE HERE. 6 00:00:33.466 --> 00:00:41.608 >> WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS FOR A LONG TIME BACK TO 16-17 AND STILL OUT THIS. >> REALLY IT BEGAN BACK DURING 7 00:00:41.608 --> 00:00:49.416 THE CRASH. ON FEBRUARY 27, 2009, THE LONGEST HOMEBUILDER THE STATE OF INDIANA CEASED OPERATIONS SO 8 00:00:49.416 --> 00:00:55.989 THEY HAD BUILT TENS OF THOUSANDS OF HOMES IN INDIANA OVER THE PREVIOUS DECADE GIVE OR TAKE AND ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY ARE GONE. 9 00:00:55.989 --> 00:01:03.296 THAT WAS HIGHLY IMPACTFUL, BUT THE NET EFFECT OVER THE LAST 10-11 YEARS AS WE ARE WAY DOWN ON THE NUMBER OF HOMES FOR 10 00:01:03.296 --> 00:01:09.335 AVAILABLE PEOPLE WHO WANT TO BUY THEM. >> IT HAS NOT GOTTEN A LOT BETTER THIS LAST COUPLE OF 11 00:01:09.335 --> 00:01:13.673 YEARS. >> IT'S WORSE PROGRESSIVELY AND IT'S NOT A HUGE JUMP, BUT IT FEELS LIKE IT WHEN YOU ARE 12 00:01:13.673 --> 00:01:19.279 TRYING TO BUY YOUR FIRST HOME AND SIX OTHER PEOPLE ARE THROWING A BUNCH OF MONEY AT THE SAME HOUSE YOU ARE TRYING TO 13 00:01:19.279 --> 00:01:28.188 MOVE INTO. >> WE TALK ABOUT BIDDING WARS HOW CRAZY IS THAT? >> YOU MIGHT HAVE A 225- 14 00:01:28.188 --> 00:01:34.160 225-250,000-DOLLAR HOME AND IF IT'S REALLY A CHEERY YOU MIGHT HAVE A HALF-DOZEN PEOPLE YOU ARE BIDDING AGAINST AND FOUR OR 15 00:01:34.160 --> 00:01:43.102 5 PERCENT ABOVE THE LIST PRICE BY THE CHANCE YOU GET TO BUY IT. THAT IS STILL CHALLENGING. >> THIS IS VERY MUCH A STATEWIDE 16 00:01:43.102 --> 00:01:47.907 NOT JUST IN CENTRAL INDIANA, BUT ALL OVER. >> IF YOU HAVE A CRAFTSMAN DOLL HOUSE THERE IS SOMEBODY WHO 17 00:01:47.907 --> 00:01:55.915 WANTS IT JUST AS BAD AS YOU DO. >> AS YOU LOOK AT OTHER FACTORS AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR WHAT SHOULD PROSPECTIVE 18 00:01:55.915 --> 00:02:01.287 HOME BUYERS AND SELLERS, WHAT SHOULD THEY THINK? >> THEY NEED TO KNOW THERE WILL BE A BETTER TIME DURING THE YEAR 19 00:02:01.287 --> 00:02:08.294 WHEN THEY CAN APPROACH BUYING. NOT EVERYBODY WANTS TO BUY IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER BUT TH TRUTH IS YOU HAVE LESS 20 00:02:08.294 --> 00:02:15.335 COMPETITION WHEN YOU GET INTO THOSE TWO MONTHS OF THE YEAR. WE KNOW FROM THE CURRENT DATA WE'VE HAD AND IT'S HOT OFF THE 21 00:02:15.335 --> 00:02:22.675 PRESSES WE WILL PROBABLY START 2020 AND A SIMILAR FASHION THE WAY WE STARTED 2019. >> LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT YEAR 22 00:02:22.675 --> 00:02:32.285 BASED ON THESE DYNAMICS AND SOME NUMBERS FROM THE REALTORS ASSOCIATION YOU LOOK AT 2020 OF THESE STARTING UP THE SAME. 23 00:02:32.285 --> 00:02:39.292 >> OUR FRIENDS HAVE GOTTEN SOME GREAT DATA AND WE ARE DOWN 7 PERCENT APPROXIMATELY FOR THE YEAR IN SALES. 24 00:02:39.292 --> 00:02:47.901 MOST PEOPLE CAN'T BELIEVE THAT AND AT THE SAME TIME, WE ARE DOWN ABOUT 7 PERCENT YEAR-TO-YEAR, 18-19 IN NEW 25 00:02:47.901 --> 00:02:54.874 LISTINGS WHICH TELLS US IN THE CRYSTAL BALL WHAT 2020 WILL START OUT LIKE. >> DO YOU SENSE ANY IMPROVEMENT. 26 00:02:54.874 --> 00:03:02.081 WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE NEW HOME MARKET AND DO CONSTRUCTION MARKET HAS BEEN TOUGH. ANY IMPROVEMENT? 27 00:03:02.081 --> 00:03:07.654 >> WE HAVE GREAT HOMEBUILDERS WHO ARE TRYING TO KEEP UP, BUT WE ARE IN A CAUTIONARY PLACE BECAUSE WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENED 28 00:03:07.654 --> 00:03:13.226 AND THEY HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN OR HAVE THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE DONE BUSINESS REGULARLY HAVE FORGOTTEN. 29 00:03:13.226 --> 00:03:20.333 THERE IS A SECONDARY THING SO THE LAST TWO OR THREE YEARS HOME SELLERS WHO WANT TO MOVE ARE AFRAID TO PUT THEIR HOMES ON THE 30 00:03:20.333 --> 00:03:26.706 MARKET BECAUSE THEY'VE GOT NOWHERE TO GO AND THAT'S ANOTHER PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPROBABLE AND ALL OF THIS THAT MAKES IT 31 00:03:26.706 --> 00:03:32.612 CHALLENGING FOR THE INVENTORY TO IMPROVE. >> FINAL QUESTION ANY CRYSTAL BALL ON MORTGAGE RATES AND WHERE 32 00:03:32.612 --> 00:03:39.719 YOU SEE THOSE GOING NEXT YEAR IS A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR. >> THAT'S A WILD CARD AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL WE GET 33 00:03:39.719 --> 00:03:47.827 THROUGH THE FIRST QUARTER NEXT YEAR BUT THE REALITY IS RIGHT NOW WHERE WE SIT BARRING GEOPOLITICAL THINGS WE WILL HAVE 34 00:03:47.827 --> 00:03:54.534 SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A FLUCTUATION DEPENDING ON CREDIT SCORES IN THE LATE FORCE AND THE UPPER THREE IS AN 35 00:03:54.534 --> 00:03:55.535 INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT BOTH.