updated: 4/29/2008 2:36:49 PM

[UPDATED] Poll: Democratic Presidential Primary is Too Close to Call

InsideINdianaBusiness.com Report

 Howey Politics Indiana Publisher Brian Howey says Indiana's Democratic Presidential Primary will likely not be decided by Democrats.

A new poll released today shows that the Democratic Presidential Primary race in Indiana is too close to call. The second Howey-Gauge Poll shows that Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 47 to 45 percent. Among likely Democratic voters, they are tied at 46 percent. In the race for the Democratic Nomination for Governor, Jill Long Thompson holds a lead over her opponent Jim Schellinger, 45 to 27 percent. In the Seventh Congressional District Democratic Primary, Andre Carson has 45 percent to Dr. Woody Myers’ 27 percent. State Representative David Orentlicher has seven percent and Carolene Mays has four percent.

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Source: Inside INdiana Business

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In the Fifth Congressional District, Republican Congressman Dan Burton has a 57 to 22 percent lead over Dr. John McGoff.

Press Release

INDIANAPOLIS - Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are locked in an Indiana Presidential primary race that is too close to call, according to the second Howey-Gauge Poll released today. Obama has a statistically insignificant 47-45 percent lead over Clinton. Among likely Democratic voters, Clinton and Obama are tied 46-46%. Gauge Market Research Pollster Holly Davis said the race could be determined by Republican or independent crossover voters.

The statewide presidential and gubernatorial races included two separate surveys of 600 likely voters, including one that included all Democrats. The survey, conducted after the Pennsylvania primary on April 23-24, has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

There appears to be two kinds of Republicans: the “Obamacans” as the Illinois senator likes to call them - earnest Republicans deeply disappointed in their own party’s performance on the budget, economy, social issues and the Iraq War - and the Rush Limbaugh Republicans who are planning to crossover to vote for Sen. Clinton because they perceive her to be the weakest rival to U.S. Sen. John McCain in the November election. Howey-Gauge shows that self-identified Republicans favor Clinton 50-44 percent, while independents favor Obama 54-38 percent. “The Democratic primary is going to be decided by non-Democrats,” said Gauge Market Research pollster Holly Davis. “To be determined is which group - Republicans or independents - are going to decide this race.”

In the Indiana Democratic gubernatorial primary, Jill Long Thompson of Argos has a commanding 45-27 percent. “She plays right to the core of the party,” said Davis. Jim Schellinger’s problems stem from his lack of fame. Schellinger has only 50 percent total name identification among Democrats. His favorable/unfavorables stand at a paltry 15/8 percent. In the 15 years that Howey Politics Indiana has been publishing, we’ve never seen such low name ID and favorables for a gubernatorial candidate. Looking at the Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, South Bend and Chicago media markets, Thompson has much greater name ID. About the only group that Schellinger has an advantage with is Republicans, where he leads 45-33 percent.

In the 5th Congressional District - a survey of 400 likely voters - U.S. Rep. Dan Burton has a 57-22% lead over Dr. John McGoff. While Burton has several areas of vulnerability, he also has 98% name ID, compared to just 48% for McGoff. McGoff's fav/unfavs stand at 18/2 percent and in Marion County they stand at 35/3 percent. “If people know him, they like him,” said pollster Davis.

In the 7th Congressional District with a survey of 400 likely voters, newly-elected U.S. Rep. Andre Carson has a 45-27% lead over his closest rival, Dr. Woody Myers. State Rep. David Orentlicher comes in a distant third at 7% and State Rep. Carolene Mays is at 4%, while 16% are undecided. Carson’s name ID stands at 95% in the Democratic primary and his favorable/unfavorable ratings stand at 66/8%. Myers began his TV advertising campaign on March 12, the day after Carson was elected to fill the term of his late grandmother, U.S. Rep. Julia Carson. Afters six weeks of TV, Myers’ name ID has spiked to 82% of people choosing to vote in the 7th CD primary. His fav/unfavs stood at 51/7%. “People who said they will vote for Woody also like Andre Carson,” said Davis.

Howey Politics Indiana is a non-partisan newsletter based in Indianapolis. Read the entire poll toplines at www.howeypolitics.com. The website also features the Indiana Polling Center section that compiles all independent media polls on Indiana political races. Since releasing its first survey in February, the Howey-Gauge survey methodology has been reviewed and approved by CNN, Real Clear Politics, ABC News and The Polling Center. Gauge Market Research is based in Indianapolis.

Source: Howey Politics Indiana

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